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Published on Friday, August 11, 2017

Smallest Spring Wheat Crop Since 2002 Expected

Smallest Spring Wheat Crop Since 2002 Expected

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA trimmed its estimate of the average U.S. corn yield to 169.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 174.6 last year, but well above pre-report estimates. That nudged the agency's new-crop corn production estimate down to 14.2 billion bushels, down from last year's bin-buster crop of 15.1 billion bushels, but also well above pre-report expectations.

Soybean yield and production were actually increased to 49.4 bpa and 4.4 billion bushels, which also blew past pre-report estimates.

As expected, spring wheat production was dropped to 402 million bushels, down from 534 million bushels last year and the July estimate of 423 million bushels, a consequence of severe drought in the Dakotas.

The crop estimates were released Thursday in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports. These August reports are the first of the 2017 season to take into account field surveys conducted by USDA in July.

Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for new-crop corn and new-crop soybeans and neutral for wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn, soybean and wheat, he said.

Crop Production:…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):…


USDA's projected corn yield of 169.5 bpa is the lowest since 2015, when farmers produced an average of 168.4 bpa. At 14.153 billion bushels, the estimated corn production number is the lowest since the 13.6-billion-bushel crop in 2015, as well.

If realized, the projected corn crop would be the third highest on record for yield and production. Both yield and production corn estimates are likely to surprise market analysts, who had expected significantly lower numbers given rocky planting conditions and summer weather extremes this year.

Domestically, new-crop (2017-18) corn endings stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.273 billion bushels from the July estimate, which landed within pre-report estimates. Old-crop (2016-17) corn ending stocks were left unchanged from July at 2.370 billion bushels, also within pre-report estimates.

Global new-crop ending stocks were nudged slightly upward to 200.87 million metric tons. Old-crop global ending stocks came in at 228.61 million metric tons. Both numbers surpassed pre-report estimates.

The average farmgate corn price was left unchanged from July at $3.30 per bushel.


The projected soybean yield of 49.4 bpa is an increase from the July projection of 48 bpa. At 4.381 billion bushels, the soybean production estimate is up 2% from last year and, if realized, would be a record soybean crop.

Domestically, new-crop soybean endings stocks were pushed upward to 475 million bushels, just above pre-report estimates. Old-crop ending stocks were dropped to 370 million bushels, near the low end of pre-report estimates.

Globally, soybean new-crop ending stocks were pegged at 97.78 million metric tons, with old-crop global stocks coming in at 96.98 million metric tons. Both numbers are well above pre-report expectations.

The average farmgate price for soybeans dropped 10 cents to $9.30 per bushel.


If realized, the projected spring wheat crop of 402 million bushels would be the smallest spring wheat crop since the 389-million-bushel crop of 2002.

All wheat production was dropped to 1.739 billion bushels, down from 2.310 billion bushels last year and the 1.760-billion-bushel crop predicted by USDA in July. Winter wheat alone is expected to produce 1.287 billion bushels, down from 1.672 billion bushels last year.

Domestically, new-crop ending stocks for wheat were pegged at 933 million bushels, down from 938 million bushels in July and within pre-report estimates. Old-crop ending stocks for wheat were left unchanged from July at 1.184 billion bushels, as expected by market analysts.

Global new-crop wheat ending stocks rose slightly from July to 264.69 million metric tons, which surpassed pre-report expectations. Old-crop global ending stocks also nudged upward to 258.56 million metric tons, within pre-report estimates.

The average farmgate wheat price was left unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

 Source: DTN

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Author: Russell Nemetz

Categories: General News, Today's Top 5, Livestock, Grains



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