Northern Ag Network
Northern Ag Network
Northern Broadcasting System    Northern News Network    Northern Sports Network
Search This Site...
Search This Site...
Latest USDA Wheat Estimates

Latest USDA Wheat Estimates

9/12/2017 10:46:00 AM/Categories: Popular Posts, General News, Today's Top 5, Grains, Wheat, Corn, Grain Markets, National News

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Going against most market expectations, USDA on Tuesday increased estimated corn and soybean yield and production figures, pushing up corn production to an estimated 14.184 billion bushels and soybeans to a record 4.431 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the average corn yield at 169.9 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 49.9 bushels per acre.

Tuesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for new-crop corn, neutral to bearish for new-crop soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, he said.

WHEAT: The U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of $4.30 to $4.90. The reduction is due to NASS prices to date and expectations of future cash prices.

 Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered as a 1.7-million-ton production increase is offset by a 2.7-million-ton decrease in beginning stocks. The primary production increase is for Russia, which is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 81.0 million tons; this change is based on excellent growing conditions and updated harvest results. Australia production for 2017/18 is lowered 1.0 million tons on dry conditions, and the EU is lowered 0.7 million tons. In addition, historical production changes for Australia led to lower global ending stocks. The 2015/16 Australia production change is on updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data which lowered harvested area 1.5 million hectares. Australia’s 2016/17 harvested area is lowered 0.5 million hectares. Global trade for 2017/18 is essentially unchanged. However, exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Russia on the larger crop, 0.5 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons for Turkey. These are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for EU exports and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. Total global use is up 0.5 million tons. With total supplies declining and use increasing, global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons.


World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):…


Production for the 2017-18 crop was pegged at 14.184 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels from the August projection, but still 6% lower than the 2016-17 crop.

Yield is projected at 169.9 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel per acre from the August report. Still, if realized, yield would be down 4.7 bushels per acre from a year ago.

The production forecast, if realized, would be the third-highest production on record.

USDA also bumped up 2017-18 ending stocks to 2.335 billion bushels, up 62 million bushels from the August report. USDA also lowered old-crop ending stocks by 20 million bushels. Along with 31 million bushels of higher production, USDA also lowered total corn use by 50 million bushels as well. Feed and residual use was raised 25 million bushels, but then offset by 25 million bushels of lower ethanol use as well.

The farm-gate price was lowered for producers by 10 cents a bushel to an average of $3.20.

Globally, USDA lowered beginning stocks for 2017-18 by 1.65 million metric tons. Global corn production was also lowered by 0.84 mmt. Still, USDA lowered global exports for the year by 1.45 mmt, which leads to estimated global ending stocks at 202.47 mmt, up 1.6 mmt from last month's projections.


At 4.431 billion bushels, soybean production for 2017-18 is forecast to be a record crop, a 50-million-bushel bump from the August forecast. Yield was bumped up 0.5 bushel to 49.9 bushels an acre, which is still down 2.2 bushels from 2016-17.

USDA lowered new-crop beginning stocks by 25 million bushels, which was offset by production being bumped up 50 million bushels. USDA raised soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 2.25 billion bushels. At the end, USDA left 2017-18 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 475 million bushels.

The farm price for soybeans was also lowered 10 cents a bushel to an average of $9.20.

Globally, soybean production for 2017-18 is projected at 348.44 million metric tons, an increase of 1.08 mmt from last month. Global ending stocks for soybeans are projected at 97.53 mmt, a decline of 250,000 metric tons from last month's forecast.


USDA added a special note to its monthly Crop Production report highlighting that data collection activities were affected by Hurricane Harvey and "the full impact of this weather event may not be fully reflected in this report." USDA will go back to collect harvested acres for cotton for Texas and Louisiana for the October Crop Production report. Beyond cotton, USDA will resurvey for rice, sorghum, corn, soybeans and sugarcane as well.

All that said, USDA projected all-cotton production at 21.8 million bales, up 27% from a year ago.


Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT Tuesday as he takes a look at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit…


U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-18
Grain Sorghum371365376355369480
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2017-18
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-18
Grain Sorghum2951564552
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-18
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17

Picture: Northern Ag Network 



Leave a comment

Add comment


Recent Ag News

Wyoming Ranchers Win Right to Be Heard to Defend Against Grizzly Bears Predation

3/20/2018 9:39:00 AM
DENVER, CO. Today, a federal judge agreed that Wyoming ranchers add an important voice to the discussion over how to deal with the rebounded grizzly bear population around Yellowstone National Park. For decades, ranchers such as Charles C. Price and Mary E. Thoman have dealt with the deadly and dangerous effects of the growing grizzly bear population in their backyards but will finally be able to join with the court in ensuring all parties know the true effects of the grizzly bear. Mr. Price and Ms. Thoman, and their fellow ranchers lose countless numbers of livestock due to grizzly bear kills every year. Mr. Price and other ranchers in the Upper Green River Valley lost 71 cattle to confirmed grizzly bear kills in 2017 alone. Ms. Thoman and her family have not only lost countless sheep to grizzly bear kills, but also one of the family’s shepherds was mauled by a female grizzly bear in 2010. Those trying to make an honest living in rural western Wyoming are forced to expend a vast amount of money to try to protect themselves, their employees, and their livelihoods from the unrestrained predation by the ever-growing grizzly bear population. >> Read More
Article rating: No rating

NCBA Announces 2018 Stockmanship and Stewardship Events

3/20/2018 4:56:00 AM
Stockmanship and Stewardship events provide beef and dairy producers with hands-on training, cattle handling demonstrations, beef quality assurance (BQA) certifications and more. >> Read More
Article rating: No rating

Senate Ag Committee Recognizes MT FFA President

3/19/2018 10:51:00 AM
March is Women's History Month, and the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry is celebrating women in agriculture. Today the committee recognized Sheridan Johnson, a 4th generation wheat farmer from Conrad, Montana - and Montana FFA Association president. >> Read More
Article rating: No rating

USCA Petition for Rulemaking on "Fake Meat" Under Consideration

3/16/2018 1:36:00 PM
(WASHINGTON) – The USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has posted for public comment the United States Cattlemen’s Association’s (USCA) petition for rulemaking on the definitions of “beef” and “meat”. The deadline for letters of support is April 10th. >> Read More
Article rating: No rating

Montana Ranchers to Support USCA Truthful Beef Labeling

3/16/2018 1:29:00 PM
The United States Cattlemen’s Association’s (USCA) efforts on truthful beef labeling will be supported this month with multiple fundraising events being organized by producers across the state on Montana. >> Read More
Article rating: No rating

Find Articles by Date

«March 2018»