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Market Commentary from the Northern Ag Network: 1/12/2018 3:00 PM
March Chicago wheat fell 12 3/4 cents Friday to $4.20 1/2, knocked backed to the ground from its highest prices in nearly five weeks after USDA increased its estimate of U.S. ending U.S. wheat stocks from 960 to 989 million bushels. A closer look at the numbers showed a 20 million bushel reduction in USDA's estimate of feed demand, which will be discouraging to producers given wheat's cheap prices. Also, prices were pressured by USDA's estimate of 32.6 million acres of winter wheat plantings. That is slightly lower than 2017 and still the lowest in over a century, but I suspect many were expecting an even lower number. Dec. 1 wheat stocks totaled 1.873 in the U.S., slightly more than expected, but not a surprise, given wheat's slow export pace. USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks was down slightly from a month ago, at 268.02 mmt (9.85 bb), even though Russia's crop estimate was increased from 83.0 to 85.0 mmt (3.12 bb). In spite of Friday's sell-off, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways with USDA providing plenty of fundamental reasons to be bearish. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.01 Friday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.94, near its highest price in five months.
March corn closed down 2 1/2 cents at a new contract low of $3.46 1/4, pressured by Friday's higher corn crop estimate and higher-than-expected estimate of Dec. 1 corn stocks. USDA said 14.604 billion bushels of corn were harvested in 2017, based on a higher yield estimate of 176.6 bushels an acre. After deducting 25 million bushels from feed demand, the new estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks in 2017-18 is 2.477 billion bushels or 17% of annual use. This is the highest ending stocks-to-use ratio in 12 years. USDA also said Dec. 1 corn stocks totaled a higher-than-expected 12.516 billion bushels. USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks also came in higher than expected, at 206.57 mmt (8.13 bb) or 19% of annual use. One thing USDA did not do on Friday was reduce corn's U.S. export estimate and earlier Friday, USDA said 12.6 million bushels (320,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Friday's numbers added weight to corn's bearish arguments and move the trend in March corn from sideways to down. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.15 Thursday, priced 33 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in four months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.78 at its lowest spot prices in over three years as Europe continues to show signs of improvement. Earlier Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said consumer prices were up .1% in December and up 2.1% from a year ago, as expected.
Ag Center – Cattle Report
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Kansas State – AgManager.info
North Dakota State – Livestock Economics
University of Missouri – Farm Marketing