Allendale Predicts 3.5{e7e4ba4d9a3c939171d79cae1e3a0df1d41e5a91c3c4158fbb92284b490bc9d3} Decline in Corn Yield


Coming up on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports.  Heading into those, Allendale, Inc. has the following expectations:

Corn – Allendale’s nationwide survey lowered yields to 147.7 from USDA’s current 153.0. This is the lowest yield since 2003’s 142.2. It represents a 3.5{e7e4ba4d9a3c939171d79cae1e3a0df1d41e5a91c3c4158fbb92284b490bc9d3} reduction from August. This is the largest September decline since 1995’s 3.6{e7e4ba4d9a3c939171d79cae1e3a0df1d41e5a91c3c4158fbb92284b490bc9d3} drop. This reduces production by 448 million bushels. Of that, sharply reduced demand will offset 310 million bushels.


Soybeans – Allendale’s nationwide survey lowered yields to 40.7 from USDA’s current 41.4. This is the lowest yield since 2008’s 39.7. It represents a 1.7{e7e4ba4d9a3c939171d79cae1e3a0df1d41e5a91c3c4158fbb92284b490bc9d3} reduction from August. This number is the largest September decline since 2003’s 7.6{e7e4ba4d9a3c939171d79cae1e3a0df1d41e5a91c3c4158fbb92284b490bc9d3} drop. Production has been reduced by 49 million bushels. Of that, 21 million will be offset by falling demand.


Wheat – Allendale is using a wheat yield of 43.7 bu/acre. This reduces production by 70 million bushels. However, we contend USDA’s demand estimates are optimistic. 

Commodity trading is risky. Allendale, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.

Source:  Allendale, Inc.

Posted by Haylie Shipp


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