By Phil Franz-Warkentin
WINNIPEG (MarketWatch) — Statistics Canada is expected to confirm tightening supplies of most grains and oilseeds in the agency’s latest stocks in all positions report due Friday.
The report will show the stocks being held on farm and in commercial positions as of March 31.
“From a general assessment, we should have tighter figures on most commodities, but there is a little concern on what we’ll end up with on wheat,” said Ron Frost, of Frost Forecast Consulting in Calgary. He said wheat movement, aside from durum, was relatively slow over the winter months.
Canadian wheat stocks are generally expected to be as much as 2 million metric tons lower at March 31 than they were at the same point the previous year, with most of the decline in durum.
“I think this could be an eye opener for the tight durum stocks in western Canada,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg. He said a combination of a large export program and increased livestock feeding of low-quality durum was behind the tightening durum stocks.
For barley, higher feed wheat prices and a lack of U.S. dried distillers grains with solubles, or DDGS, moving into Canada led to more barley being fed in western Canada over the winter, said Klassen. The increased consumption should cut into those stocks compared with the previous year.
Frost added that many crops, including barley, flax, oats, and canola, had smaller production to begin with in 2010.
Darren Frank, of FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Manitoba, said he would be watching the StatsCan stocks numbers to provide a better picture of production in 2010. He said he thought acres and production were overstated for canola in previous StatsCan reports and expected a tighter stocks number in March could compensate for the larger numbers released earlier.
“I think we’ll see very tight (canola) stocks,” said Chuck Penner of Left Field Commodity Research in Winnipeg, noting that both exports and the domestic crush are running at a record pace.
Klassen expected the canola stocks number would confirm the tight fundamentals that the trade has already factored into the market for the most part.
Flax and oats stocks should also be down from where they were a year ago, said Klassen, noting that both crops will need more acres in the upcoming crop year to help alleviate that tightness.
Peas are another crop expected to see tight supplies in the StatsCan report. Penner and Frank both pointed to a large pea export program over the past year, which cut into supplies.
The following are preliminary estimates for some of the crops that will be included in the Statistics Canada grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report scheduled for release Friday.
Figures are in million metric tons.
Source: MarketWatch
Posted by Haylie Shipp
