The recently announced second round of farmer trade aid from the USDA is going to be paid a little differently from what producers previously received. The first round saw just a flat rate for each commodity paid on 2018 producers. MFP 2.0 will pay producers on a per acre basis, based on the total loss suffered by each county due to trade retaliation.
Producers of alfalfa hay, barley, canola, corn, crambe, dry peas, extra-long staple cotton, flaxseed, lentils, long grain and medium grain rice, mustard seed, dried beans, oats, peanuts, rapeseed, safflower, sesame seed, small and large chickpeas, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower seed, temperate japonica rice, upland cotton, and wheat will receive a payment.
USDA is trying not to distort planting decisions this year, so payments are not dependent on which of those crops are planting in 2019. Also, total payment-eligible plantings cannot exceed total 2018 plantings. Payments won’t begin until after acreages are certified by July 15th.
A Farm Futures analysis estimated that the average county payment for crops could be around $47/acre nationwide. That estimate is based on assumptions that the agency will use a similar scheme to calculate trade damage as they did in 2018, so it is certainly subject to change.
In the Northern Ag Network listening region of Montana, Wyoming and the Western Dakotas, payments are estimated to be considerably lower than the national average.
The range that Farm Futures is forecasting for the Cowboy State is from a low of $5.10 in Washakie County, to a high of $10.20 in Uinta County. Most Wyoming counties are in the 6 to 8-dollar range.
In Montana Farm Futures is forecasting a low of $7.50 in Carbon County, to a high of $44.90 in Sheridan County. Most of the Montana counties are in the 8 to 12 dollar range, with the higher payments noted from the Golden Triangle to the Northwest corner of North Dakota.
For the Western Dakotas, the range is from a low of $10.60 in Lawrence County South Dakota to a high of $48.90 in Mountrail County North Dakota.
Below is the map put together by Farm Futures, with estimates for every county. To read their analysis of the projected payments visit farmprogress.com/usda/tariff-aid-could-vary-widely