by Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor
WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA lowered corn ending stocks by 121 million bushels to 1.877 billion bushels to reflect a lower, but still record, corn production estimate. Soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 410 mb.
USDA released its Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Quarterly Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seedings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CST on Monday.
All of USDA's corn and soybean figures fell within the range of pre-report expectations. The surprises came in lower than anticipated winter wheat acreage, higher than expected sorghum production and lower than anticipated sorghum ending stocks.
CORN
USDA estimated 2014's corn production at 14.216 billion bushels, down 191 million bushels from its November estimate. Farmers harvested 83.1 million acres with a record national average yield of 171 bushels per acre. That's 2.4 bpa lower than USDA's November estimate.
Corn stocks as of December 1, at 11.2 billion bushels, are 7{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} higher than during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its quarterly Grain Stocks report. Of total stocks, 7.09 bb are stored on farm, up 11{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from last year. The remainder, 4.12 bb, is stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance from September to November 2014 indicated demand of 4.25 bb, compared to 4.29 bb the prior year.
USDA's WASDE report put corn ending stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year at 1.877 bb, down 121 mb from USDA's December estimate of 1.998 bb. After USDA incorporated the revised production estimate, it trimmed 100 mb from feed and residual demand and added 25 mb of demand for ethanol and food, seed, and industrial use. USDA said the extra corn use for ethanol was to offset a decline in sorghum use for ethanol. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 13.8{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} compared to 14.6{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} in December.
Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks 189.15 million metric tons, down a little more than 3 mmt from last month on the decline in U.S. production. USDA left Brazil, Argentina and China's corn production forecasts unchanged. USDA anticipates that China will import 2 mmt of corn, down from 3.28 mmt last year.
The global stocks-to-use ration came in at 19.5{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} compared to 19.8{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} last month.
SOYBEANS
Farmers produced 3.969 billion bushels of soybeans, USDA said in its Annual Crop Production report. It's nearly identical with the average pre-report estimate but slightly higher than the November forecast. USDA said farmers harvested 83.1 million acres, a record, with a national average yield of 47.8 bpa, which is 0.3 bpa higher than the previous estimate and also a record. USDA may update the soybean production figure in its September 2015 quarterly stocks report.
There are 2.52 bb in storage, up 17{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from a year earlier, according to the Grain Stocks report. Farmers are holding 1.22 bb on farm, up 28{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from the previous year, while 1.31 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance for September through November totaled 1.54 bb, up 14{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from the same period a year earlier.
The WASDE report left ending stocks unchanged at 410 mb. USDA incorporated the slightly larger production estimate, which was offset by a 10 mb increase in exports and 1 mb increase in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged at 11.2{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}.
Globally, USDA increased its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 0.91 mmt to 90.8 mmt. It estimates Brazil's production at 95.5 mmt, up 1.5 mmt from December, and Argentina's production at 55 mmt, unchanged from December. Global ending stocks-to-use grew to 31.7{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from last month's 31.4{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}.
WHEAT
Farmers seeded 40.45 million acres of winter wheat, USDA said in its Winter Wheat Seedings report. Of that, hard red winter wheat was planted on 29.5 ma, soft red winter wheat on 7.5 ma and white winter wheat on 3.48 ma.
Northern Ag Network Notes: Montana was down 8{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} in seeded acres from 2014 while North Dakota dropped 54{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}, planting 470,000 less acres into Winter Wheat for 2015. On the other hand, both Wyoming and South Dakota saw gains, with South Dakota up 122{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}. with an additional 270,000 acres.
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Wheat stored in all positions as of December 1 totaled 1.53 bb, up 3{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from a year ago. Farmers held 473 mb on farm, while another 1.05 bb is held in off-farm locations. Disappearance from September to November came in at 383 mb, down 3{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from the year prior.
USDA's ending stocks estimate, at 687 mb, is 33 mb larger than the previous estimate. USDA said seed use declined 2 mb while feed and residual use declined 30 mb. The ending stocks-to-use ratio increased to 32.6{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}, the largest change of the three major crops.
Globally, USDA raised the ending stocks estimate by 1.1 mmt to 196 mmt. USDA left Canadian and FSU-12 wheat production unchanged at 29.3 mmt and 111.6 mmt respectively. The global ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 27.5{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} compared to last month's 27.4{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a}.
SORGHUM
Farmers produced a record sorghum crop in 2014 at 433 mb, up 11{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from 2013. Planted area is estimated at 7.14 ma, down 11{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from 2013. Harvest acreage, at 6.4 ma, was down only 2{18648621dc58566f60964eb5074c58f5f97501fe95033d5d25ee4862e704a74a} from 2013. The national average yield came in at 67.6 bpa.
The quarterly grain stocks report pegged sorghum stocks as of Dec. 1 at 229 mb, toward the low end of pre-report expectations.
USDA's WASDE report reflected the strong pace of sorghum export sales and shipments to China, with USDA increasing the export forecast by 40 mb and lowering domestic use by 10 mb. The ending stocks estimate came in at 32 mb, below the range of pre-report expectation.
