Corn, soy, and wheat futures trade was two-sided to start the week but managed to gain a footing after sliding back toward recent lows largely as a result of a sudden flare up in trade tensions between the U.S. and China after China announced a series of export restrictions on rare-earth minerals as well as retaliatory shipping fees against the U.S. For now, things on that front have cooled over the weekend, with President Trump calling last week’s development “a bad moment” and expressing confidence in the relationship.
WHEAT:
December Kansas City futures fell 1 3/4 cents on Monday to $4.81 1/4. Chicago and MIAX Minneapolis futures were also lower. December KC prices continued to drift into five-plus year lows, managing to find soft support for Monday at $4.80, although it remains difficult at this point to judge support strength when the wheat market through the summer has largely ignored chart clues as the fundamental situation has grown increasingly bearish.
Estimates for the size of recently harvested world wheat crops continue to grow with upgrades to Russian and European supplies last week, while conditions continue to point toward strong expectations for Southern Hemisphere production later this fall and winter. Bullish points to be made for the wheat market continue to be well into the future in regard to 2026 winter crops, with little regard being given to early dryness. Otherwise, the strong start to U.S. wheat demand no longer has the market’s attention given the pause in weekly USDA reminders. Meanwhile, the rise in the U.S. dollar to two and a half month highs has also been a source of pressure to wheat prices.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Friday at $4.13, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.12. Monday’s futures closes and implied basis of 70 cents under the December board for HRW, and 39 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Monday afternoon to be near $4.11 and $5.12, respectively.
Corn
December corn futures slipped another 2 1/4 cents on Monday to $4.10 3/4. March futures were down 1 3/4 cents to $4.27 1/4. December corn prices made an early attempt to recapture lost ground above the 50-day moving average, now at $4.15, but were ultimately unable to move above the mark. A sustained hold above the 50-day average sets the $4.00 to $4.05 area as a bearish target for the move.
Corn traders continue to trade through the data blackout as a result of the ongoing government shutdown. Rumors continue to circulate of lower-than-expected corn yields across the Midwest, a theory that would be supported by firming spreads since early September, while corn basis values have also turned slightly higher over the past few days. However, as mentioned in previous comments, the bearish issue on the balance sheet remains the high acreage which, barring a surprise revision lower, still points toward a record corn crop in 2025 and subsequent growth in stocks.
Weekend weather for the Corn Belt featured rain showers in the Northern Plains but overall dry conditions otherwise. This pattern looks to hold until late this week when rainfall chances pick up into the weekend across the Eastern Corn Belt before shifting dry again by next week. Temperatures are expected to be above average as well across the Midwest. Monday’s Crop Progress update is again canceled, but best estimate would put the pace of U.S. corn harvest near 40% to 45% complete based on the 5-year averages for mid-October.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Friday at $3.73. Monday’s futures close and implied corn basis of 40 cents under the December board would indicate the index on Monday afternoon to be near $3.71.
