U.S. row-crop markets were able to post modest gains for Wednesday after it was announced early that negotiations with Japan have begun with President Trump himself taking part in the talks. Meanwhile it was also reported that China was open to beginning trade talks with the U.S. as well, even appointing a new head negotiator for the next round, as reported by CNBC Wednesday morning. Outside markets remained skeptical with stock indices lower, primarily driven by shaky tech stocks amid ongoing escalation with China in that sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index was again lower on Wednesday following a brief pause Tuesday, which provided some positive outside influence to ag commodities.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City futures traded 5 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.58. New-crop July futures were also up 3 3/4 cents to $5.72 1/4. Wheat markets were firmer for Wednesday across the three major futures contracts on what felt like primarily a technically driven bounce. Support at $5.50 for May KC futures again flexed its muscles in rejecting an attempt lower early on Wednesday. The market could not sustain a move back above $5.60 on Wednesday, and the 20-day moving average waits as a likely source of resistance at least in the near term at $5.65 1/4.
The market conditions for wheat remained largely unchanged on Wednesday. The softer U.S. Dollar Index likely can be pointed to as a source of strength behind Wednesday’s positive price action. Otherwise, weather forecasts for the next two weeks remain on the wetter side across U.S. growing areas, an event which will likely be met with mixed feelings as hard red growers in the west will welcome the moisture while soft red producers in the east will likely be dealing with excess moisture through the month of April thus far.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.85, while the DTN National HRS Index was at $5.75. Wednesday’s futures close and the implied Tuesday basis of 83 cents under the July for HRW, and 41 cents under the July for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.86 and $5.74, respectively.
CORN:
May corn closed up 3 cents on Wednesday to $4.84 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 2 1/2 cents to $4.66 3/4. May corn futures traded to a high of $4.87 on Wednesday but were unable to sustain the attempt higher. For now, resistance has formed in the upper $4.80s to low $4.90s, while support waits at the 50-day moving average near $4.77. Meanwhile, December futures posted a fifth positive session in the last six. Bullish traders are likely looking at the 2025 calendar year high for December corn of $4.79 3/4 as a medium-term target.
Weekly ethanol production numbers from the EIA again reflected a seasonal slowdown in production with 1.012 million barrels of ethanol produced per day last week. Pace of production held at 3.7% higher than this time in 2024 for the corn marketing year thus far. In Brazil, agency DERAL reported in their weekly crop update on Tuesday that Parana’s (second largest safrinha producing state) crop had stabilized in condition as a result of recent rainfall but did voice concerns over uneven precipitation for portions of the crop. Corn pollination was reported at 38% complete as of Monday, April 14. Further south in Argentina, it should be noted that the Rosario Grain Exchange, which had been among the lowest among corn production estimates for Argentina, revised their estimate 4 million metric tons (mmt) higher in their update last week to 48.5 mmt, much closer but still a touch below the USDA estimate of 50 mmt from the April WASDE. Argentine corn harvest is roughly a quarter complete.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.54. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s implied corn basis of 27 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.57.
