Well for those expecting volatility in the hours immediately following the long-anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi in South Korea late Wednesday, the overnight trade in the soybean market certainly fit that bill. January futures traded down as much as 24 cents as details were slow to emerge before the early morning hours when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the plans for soybean exports to China, discussed in detail below.
WHEAT:
December KC futures fell on Thursday to $5.13, down 9 3/4 cents. March futures were down 9 cents to $5.29. From a technical standpoint, Thursday’s breather in the wheat market makes sense after six straight sessions higher on the December Kansas City board. Resistance now sits just above $5.20, while prices found support Thursday when prices briefly moved back below $5.10. Chicago and Minneapolis markets were also 8 to 10 cents lower on the day.
There may have been some level of disappointment that wheat did not get a mention of interest in the deal with China, although looking through world values it shouldn’t be too surprising, with Argentina’s potentially record breaking yields driving prices to being the most affordable offer in the world. The U.S. dollar has also put together a two day rally back towards recent highs, which added some pressure to concerns on the trade front.
What seems more likely as detrimental to winter wheat prices on Thursday has been widespread rainfall over the past week across the southeastern U.S., stretching into hard red areas in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, but benefitting dry areas in soft red regions across Missouri, Kentucky, and southern Illinois. Thursday’s Drought Monitor update showed a reduction in winter wheat area in drought to 40%, down from 43% the previous week. Still a fairly high level of dryness to monitor but certainly moving in the right direction as the 2026 winter wheat crop emerges.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Wednesday at $4.54, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.30. Thursday’s futures closes and implied basis of 68 cents under the December board for HRW, and 31 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Thursday afternoon to be near $4.44 and $5.20, respectively.
Corn
December corn futures fell 3 3/4 cents on Thursday to $4.30 1/4. March futures were down 3 cents to $4.43 3/4. The corn market continues to struggle to gain a footing above resistance just above $4.30 for December futures, trading in a wide range on Thursday before eventually settling lower and snapping a 3-day win streak in the process. Traders are still displaying a sense of bullishness evident by the recovery from daily lows but appear to be equally desiring further reassurances to send prices back toward early summer type levels.
The news for corn on Thursday was very quiet with most of the attention understandably going to the soybean market following the meeting between Trump and Xi. Corn’s place within the deal framework is unknown but was not really expected to be the point of discussion. China has rarely in history been a large importer of corn outside of the years immediately following the pandemic, but import levels have since fallen drastically and back into normal range.
Looking ahead, with the government shutdown ongoing and no weekly looks into corn export sales demand but with inspections still pointing to a strong pace, traders will continue to look toward basis and spread clues to formulate supply and demand outlooks. For a reference, in May 2025 when USDA forecast the 2025-26 corn carryout at 1.8 billion bushels (bb), December corn futures quickly rallied to a high of $4.55 before widespread rainfall just as quickly extinguished the rally. The point being that a return back toward April and May prices is a reasonable bullish target if yields ultimately pull the 2025 corn crop back under 16 bb.
