Soybean futures continued their choppy pattern for the week, regaining Tuesday’s losses (and then some) ahead of the expected EPA biodiesel blending mandate announcement this week, and gaining steam into the close after it was reported the White House has officially rescheduled President Trump’s visit to China for mid-May.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City wheat futures were up 13 3/4 cents on Thursday to $6.17 3/4. Chicago and Minneapolis markets also traded higher. Wheat futures overcame a lower start to trade higher for a second straight session, with the $6.00 mark for May KC futures again holding as support for the third time this week. The upside target is 2026 highs near $6.30.
Wheat news was slim on Wednesday, with a technical bounce from chart support along with higher corn and soybean futures likely a driving factor in the higher price action at midweek. The dry situation in the Central and Southern U.S. Plains continues to be a bullish argument as well, with only scattered chances for hard red regions forecasted for the first week of April, meanwhile temperatures through the final days of March are expected to be well above normal.
In world wheat news, there continues to be few significant warning signs regarding 2026 supplies, with very large carry in stocks thanks to record or near-record production in key growing regions in 2025. Conditions for growing winter crops are reported to be overall decent across the globe. The longer-term outlook, however, is more uncertain with the availability of fertilizer being brought into question amid the conflict in the Middle East and more specifically the in the Persian Gulf.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $5.33, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.91. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average soybean basis of 71 cents under the May board for HRW, and 40 cents under the May board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $5.47 and $6.00, respectively.
Corn
May corn futures rose 4 3/4 cents on Wednesday, closing at $4.67 1/4. July futures were up 5 1/4 cents to $4.77 3/4. The corn market was able to overcome a lower start, gaining steam on the EPA’s E-15 announcement. The May contract is again approaching chart resistance near $4.70 and above, while the 20-day moving average ($4.57 3/4) has been supportive, not allowing a close below since Feb. 19.
The EIA reported ethanol production last week averaged 1.116 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 23,000 bpd from the previous week. Ethanol inventories also jumped through the most recent week to 27.2 million barrels, just a touch below the same point in 2025. At a plant level, gross margins remain strong, with last week’s Midwest average being $2.25 per bushel of corn crushed, the highest of the past three years for late March. The EPA announced E-15 sales will be allowed through the summer months in an attempt to curb high gasoline prices through the typically busiest driving months, which should set a strong foundation for ethanol demand and subsequently corn demand as well.
World corn news was quiet at midweek, with producers in Brazil still working to finish safrinha planting. Acres sown at this point are certainly considered late and worth monitoring through the mid- to late-growing season in a couple months. Argentina is in a slightly different situation as corn harvest ramps up, with a drier window over the next ten days likely to advance progress. Argentina’s export offers for corn are currently a moderate discount to U.S. offers.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.22. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average corn basis of 41 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.27.
