Markets took on a more reserved tone Friday ahead of the weekend, with futures trading both sides of even but gaining some semblance of footing following a turn lower across the middle part of the past week. For the most part, it was a retracement-themed week as prices finished on Friday very close to last week’s close, with traders for now removing Monday’s premium primarily from the soybean market. The support points which propped up prices for Friday will be interesting to monitor when trade resumes on Sunday evening and into next week’s holiday-shortened week. Outside markets for Friday were mixed, with equities recovering near October lows. Meanwhile, energy markets headed lower again with January crude oil futures posting the lowest close in a month behind the idea that the proposed peace plan between Russia and Ukraine would ultimately result in a lifting of existing sanctions against the Russian oil industry.
WHEAT:
December KC wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents on Friday to $5.11. March futures were up 2 1/2 cents to $5.26 1/4. Wheat futures were mixed across the various boards with KC futures snapping a 3-day skid but Chicago and Minneapolis futures remained under pressure. For March KC futures, buyers stepped in as prices closed below the 50-day moving average ($5.26 3/4) for the first time since late October on Thursday. Despite positive price action, bulls were unable to regain that level of support on Friday, setting up an interesting technical trade for next week to see if that level will become short-term resistance to prices. If so, the next major area of support is likely near $5.05 for March futures.
The prospects for Argentina’s 2025 wheat harvest continue to be very good. With the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raising their production estimate to a record 24 million metric tons (mmt) last week, while the USDA boosted their estimate as well in last week’s WASDE to 22 mmt. The crop is just over 20% harvested as of this week. As a result of the anticipated crop, Argentine export offers continue to undercut world competition. Meanwhile, the U.S. is also priced over Russia as well. Black Sea consultancy group SovEcon raised their 2025 Russian wheat harvest estimate by 0.8 mmt to 88.6 mmt, and 2.1 mmt higher than the most recent USDA estimate for the crop. The world wheat crop continues to grow in size through 2025 and will likely serve to keep a lid on price potential especially with Southern Hemisphere (Australia and Argentina) crops bridging the gap to 2026. That being said, wheat prices remain toward the bottom of historical price ranges and may benefit from technically driven buying on price dips.
Corn
December corn futures closed down 1 cent on Friday to $4.25 1/2. March futures were down 1/4 cent to $4.37 1/4. Corn futures closed the week with a third session lower but managed to find support on the March contract at the 100-day moving average near $4.35 3/4. The board had overtaken resistance at the 100-day moving average in mid-October after spending most of 2025 below the major technical guideline. Next week’s trade will be interesting to see if support can hold at this mark. For now, the bullish objective will be to reestablish price support at $4.40 on the March contract.
News was quiet for Friday as it has been for most of the week. The lack of current export sales data may have led traders to revert focus to the large supplies outlined in last week’s WASDE report through the latter part of this week, pressuring prices in the process. To start next week, demand bulls will get a refreshing reminder of the blistering pace of export inspections, which were 73% ahead of the same point in 2024 as of Nov. 13, a gap that has been widening in recent weeks. Meanwhile, it will also be interesting on Monday (in what should be the last Crop Progress release of the season) to see where corn harvest progress sits heading into late November after this past Monday showed a slower close to harvest than had been anticipated, especially for number three producer Nebraska, reported at only 74% harvested as of Nov. 16, 21 points behind average across 2020-2024.
In world corn news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 2026 corn crop plantings are still just over a third complete, 37% as of this week to be exact. Producers will likely begin to shift focus back to late-season corn toward the end of the month. The agency noted that corn which has emerged is in good overall condition, with some concern noted for excess moisture across southern regions.
