Agricultural markets were mostly calm Friday, and for the most part followed weekly trends into the close, featuring reversals off early session gains. Corn futures looked to be heading for a third positive session out of four tries this week before bears regained control by the last hour of trade. Meanwhile, soybean prices fell again following Thursday’s impressive afternoon rally. Wheat markets remained limited in terms of upward momentum but were also able to stabilize following Thursday’s ugly morning trade which sent prices to new lows.
WHEAT:
December Kansas City wheat futures closed down 1 cent on Friday to $5.05 1/4. Wheat markets were very quiet to close the week, as early attempts higher in Kansas City futures were quickly rejected, but prices stabilized for the most part following a rally off daily lows on Thursday. The $5.00 level is clearly the support area to watch, a break here would send prices back into levels not seen in five years.
Weekly export data was mixed for wheat, with sales disappointing at just 11.5 mb, but a strong week of shipments was the second highest of the marketing year thus far at 32.7 mb. Total commitments for the 2025-26 season are now 456 mb and are 22% ahead of the USDA estimate, clearing the path for a potential increase in the export forecast in the balance sheet in upcoming WASDE reports, which will certainly help with U.S. wheat stocks estimated at a 6-year high currently.
In world wheat news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) said on Thursday the 2025-26 wheat crop in Argentina is rated at 79% good to excellent, up considerably from the same point last year. Rainfall has been very persistent through the last couple of months, with 27% of regions reporting excess moisture. This report follows a friendly Australian update earlier this week and paints a good picture for Southern Hemisphere crops due later this year and into 2026, adding to an already amply supplied world balance sheet.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Thursday at $4.29, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.16. Friday’s futures closes and implied basis of 77 cents under the December board for HRW, and 54 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Friday afternoon to be near $4.28 and $5.12, respectively.
Corn
December corn futures closed at $4.18 on Friday, down 1 3/4 cents. March futures were also lower, down 1 cent to $4.36 1/2. Friday quickly turned from a promising session to a disappointing one for the corn market as early gains were erased by early afternoon, with the December contract closing 6 3/4 cents below the daily high and unable to build off Thursday’s reversal momentum. Friday’s high price of $4.24 3/4 was the highest intraday corn price since July 22. I still view $4.27 as a level to watch in the short term and a necessary foothold if the corn market is to climb back into May and June price ranges.
USDA released their weekly export data on Friday morning, and it was mostly supportive for the corn market. First, for the old-crop 2024-25 season, this week’s data represents the final full week of export data for that season which ended on Aug. 31. Weekly shipments for the week ended Aug. 28 totaled 68.6 million bushels (mb), a very strong seasonal number and the highest weekly shipments since mid-June. This brings total exports for the year to 2.690 billion bushels (bb). According to the report, there are still 73.4 mb of outstanding sales to account for as well, although each of the last four weeks have featured net cancellations. Simple math would suggest there isn’t enough to hit the USDA goal of 2.820 bb of exports for the season, but there will certainly be late accounting done and with the pace the Census Bureau has been outpacing weekly USDA data it is still reasonable to expect the USDA goal could yet be reached. For the new-crop book, sales advanced to 822.5 mb, a record for sales ahead of the start of the new season, surpassing the previous mark set in 2020-2021. The International Grains Council weekly report showed U.S. Gulf corn offers remain competitive but are now slightly higher than both Brazil and Argentina.
In corn weather heading into the weekend, the 2-week precipitation forecast still shows a mostly dry Eastern Corn Belt over the next week, with increased chances the following week. Western Corn Belt precipitation is expected to be heavier especially in eastern Nebraska. The main weather feature to watch, however, may be the lows in the Northern Plains which are expected to be sub-40 degrees for parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, and even South Dakota. Damaging freeze is still seen as unlikely but it will be a story that will need to be monitored for instances of frost.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Thursday at $3.78. Friday’s futures close and implied corn basis of 42 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Friday afternoon to be near $3.76 to close the week.
