Row-crop futures were mostly moderately lower to close the week, with little fresh news to break the fall in soybean futures or encourage corn traders to challenge nearby price resistance.
WHEAT:
March Kansas City wheat futures traded 1 3/4 cents lower on Friday to $5.15 1/4. Meanwhile, Chicago and Minneapolis futures managed to trade higher, with Minneapolis prices leading the way following a two-day surge from contract lows to end the week. For Kansas City futures, the March contract traded very narrowly on Friday, with the near-term bullish target remaining at downtrend resistance just above $5.20, with the 100-day moving average ($5.30 3/4) as the next upside target.
Wheat market news for Friday was slim, with the main bullish argument for the market the strong demand outlook with U.S. export commitments remaining 23% ahead of the same point in 2024 as of the end of November. With world wheat stocks (outside of China) forecasted at an eight-year high and U.S. held stocks forecasted at a six-year high, there remains a firm layer of fundamental pressure on prices. Still, this week’s bounce from contract lows may be evidence that a front-month wheat futures price near $5.00 is seen as a buying opportunity to speculators.
In world wheat news, BAGE reported Argentina’s wheat crop is 73.3% harvested at this point, while increasing their production forecast to a record 27.1 million metric tons (mmt), up from 25.5 mmt for their previous estimate. This is 3.1 mmt above USDA’s forecast in the December WASDE report. In other news, the challenging price situation for wheat around the globe is beginning to point to the potential for lower wheat area and production in 2026, with SovEcon forecasting a 5-6% yearly drop in Russian wheat output in 2026. Meanwhile, in the U.S. it is quite possible that January’s seedings report will also show lower year-over-year winter wheat area as well.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Thursday at $4.44, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.54. Friday’s futures close and implied basis of 73 cents under the March board for HRW, and 19 cents under the March board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Friday afternoon to be near $4.42 and $5.59, respectively.
Corn
March corn futures fell 3/4 of a cent on Friday, closing at $4.43 3/4. May futures were down 3/4 of a cent as well to $4.51 1/2. The corn market fell from immediate resistance on Friday near $4.45, which is emerging downtrend resistance rooted at the Nov. 13 high close for the fall. For Friday, prices remained above key support in the form of the 20-day ($4.43 1/4) and 50-day ($4.42) moving averages. A break above immediate resistance would set up $4.50 as the next obstacle to a rally.
The daily USDA export sale announcement was quiet for corn, with no follow up to Thursday’s rumors of purchases by China. Regardless, the strength of U.S. export demand is undeniable, with commitments pace 30% ahead of the same point in 2024 as of the end of November. Meanwhile, USDA will release their latest Cattle on Feed report later Friday afternoon, which will continue to shed more light on potential feed demand in the near future, along with next week’s Hogs and Pigs report. It is worth noting that USDA’s forecast for 6.1 billion bushels (bb) of feed and residual demand would be the largest in 20 years. As always, the wild card will be the residual portion, which tends to be an error correction mechanism for USDA.
In world corn news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported the total Argentine corn crop is 70% planted as of this week, ahead of average for mid-December. The agency reported the crop is rated 88% good to excellent, 50 points ahead of the same period in 2024. Meanwhile just over 20% of the crop is tasseling currently, with adequate soil moisture and a forecast through the last 10 days of December which appears to feature plenty of chances for rainfall, though there are dry stretches forecasted which may be worth monitoring through the end of the month.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Thursday at $4.04. Friday’s futures close and implied national average corn basis of 40 cents under the March board would indicate the index on Friday afternoon to be near $4.04.
