DTN reports:
December corn closed up 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 10 3/4 cents Monday, influenced by higher closes in wheat and vegetable oils. Cold and wet weather across northern Europe may have damaged crop prospects with more of the same expected this week.
WHEAT:
July KC wheat closed up 19 1/2 cents at $$6.02 1/2, finishing at its highest close in over two months for the first time since July. Northwestern Kansas received snow Friday evening and parts of western Kansas were below freezing Sunday morning. U.S. temperatures are already warming and the threat of frost is diminishing in the U.S. As temperatures warm this week, moderate to heavy rain amounts are expected in much of the Central and Southern Plains, starting Thursday, and should reach most, but not all, of the HRW wheat region. SRW wheat areas are already wet and more rain may not be so welcome.
Monday’s bigger impact on wheat prices is happening in Europe where crops were exposed to frost from France and the U.K. to Poland and even western Ukraine. May milling wheat in France closed up 4.4% at 215.50 euros per mt, a new two-month high for the first time this year. At the same time, eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia continue to deal with dry weather, finding not much rain again in this week’s forecast.
Earlier Monday, USDA said 16.5 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, just enough to keep shipments close to USDA’s estimated pace in 2023-24. HRS wheat showed the most movement with 5.1 mb inspected and was followed by 4.8 mb of SRW wheat. Friday’s CFTC report showed noncommercials in KC wheat increased net shorts to 42,523 as of April 16, a move they likely regret Monday. After several months of wheat prices under bearish pressure, the trends are now sideways for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $5.33 Friday, up from the lowest price in three years. DTN’s National HRS Index closed at $6.23.
CORN:
December corn closed up 6 1/4 cents at $4.72 1/2 Monday, back above its 20-day average with support from Monday’s higher closes in wheat after frost was experienced in the southwestern U.S. Plains and across northern Europe. Fundamentally, corn prices also have reason to be concerned about the future of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop as the transition to Brazil’s dry season is underway. Also, Argentina’s corn harvest is only 17% complete, encountering delay due to wet conditions with more rain expected this week. The arrival of adverse weather is catching specs vulnerable after Friday’s CFTC report showed noncommercials in corn increased net shorts to 204,857 as of April 16, a big bearish bet that was put under pressure Monday.
Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will likely show some planting progress in southern states, but not much yet in northern states as rain crossed the northern Midwest last week, followed by colder temperatures. This week’s forecast for the Corn Belt is mostly dry the first three days, followed by moderate to heavy rain amounts for most of the region, along with warmer temperatures later in the week. The warmer temperatures should eventually allow planting to pick up in all areas where fields aren’t too wet. Earlier Monday, USDA said 63.9 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, helping keep corn shipments above USDA’s estimated pace in 2023-24.
Monday’s higher close suggests prices have support near $4.60 and puts prices in good position to challenge resistance at $4.81. For now, December corn remains in a sideways trend. DTN’s National Corn Index was priced at $4.17 Friday evening, 17 cents below the May futures. The fear premium in outside markets related to tensions between Israel and Iran eased Monday with June gold trading down $72.90. June crude oil is trading down 38 cents, near $82.00 a barrel.
