For Thursday, wheat markets continued to be the star of the show for the weekly trade in row-crop futures, jumping double digits again in the Kansas City market and setting a new calendar year high early in the session. Despite the strong showing from wheat, corn and soybean futures were unable to join the rally, trading mixed and ultimately lower in a narrow session.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City futures rose 17 1/4 cents on Thursday, closing at $6.42 3/4. New crop July futures were up 16 1/2 cents to $6.55. Chicago and Minneapolis futures were higher as well, though Chicago gains were modest relative to double digit moves for HRW and HRS prices. The May KC close is the highest of 2026 thus far. Previously through 2026, moves above $6.30 have been difficult for the market to sustain so it will be important to watch for profit-taking in coming sessions.
Thursday morning’s Drought Monitor continued to show 68% of U.S. winter wheat area in some form of drought, as conditions have improved in the eastern soft wheat regions but worsened across the central Plains. This at least partly explains the tempered rally in Chicago SRW futures relative to KC prices. In addition to already low ratings for the U.S. HRW crop, there will also be freeze warnings in effect for western Kansas, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado Friday night through Saturday morning which will be important to monitor for potential crop damage. In Thursday’s export sales report, sales for the week ended April 9 were reported at 3.7 mb, down from the previous week and previous monthly average. Shipments were 11.5 mb, also the lowest since the first week of 2026. Regardless, commitments for the 2025-26 season reached 895 mb compared to USDA’s goal of 900 mb for the season. Shipments will need to pick up steam to get the USDA goal shipped by May 31, but barring cancellations any unshipped sales will simply roll into the next marketing year.
In terms of the world wheat outlook, traders are pricing in the growing idea that production in 2026-27 and beyond may be reduced amid fertilizer constraints and high costs influencing less application (lower yield) or lower wheat area all together. The latter already estimated to be the lowest in the U.S. since records began in 1919. However, traders will have to balance these bullish thoughts with old-crop wheat inventories which remain the largest on record. Also, not every 2026 crop is looking as worrisome as U.S. hard red wheat, with winter crop production in the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, India, and China to name a few unaffected by the shock to fertilizer costs brought on by the war in the Middle East beginning in late February 2026.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Wednesday at $5.56, while the DTN National HRS Index was $6.04. Thursday’s futures close and Wednesday’s national average soybean basis of 82 cents under the July board for HRW, and 51 cents under the July board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Thursday afternoon to be near $5.73 and $6.16, respectively.
Corn
May corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents on Thursday, closing at $4.48 1/2. July futures were down 2 3/4 cents as well to $4.57 3/4. The corn market slipped on Thursday following a two-day reversal from month and a half lows early this week. May futures fell below the 50-day moving average ($4.49 1/2) again on Thursday, as bullish traders will be looking to establish support above this level once again. For now, support is seen near $4.40, the early week low for the May contract.
USDA reported on Thursday that corn export sales for the week ended April 9 totaled 55.1 million bushels (mb), a strong showing and the highest weekly sales total since the first week of March. Meanwhile, shipments fell to 61.4 mb on the week. Total commitments are now 2.866 billion bushels (bb) for the 2025-26 season, eclipsing last year’s total export program of 2.858 bb with four and a half months left in the marketing year. Commitments are 29% ahead of the same point in 2025. For prices, U.S. offers remain competitive, just slightly ahead of Argentina, though well below offers out of Brazil and Ukraine.
In world corn news, forecasted rainfall for Brazil’s safrinha regions remains inconsistent through the balance of April, and will be important to monitor as the crop begins to pollinate. In Argentina, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn harvest is just under 25% complete as of this week. The agency also raised their forecast for production by 4 million metric tons (mmt) to 61 mmt, 9 mmt above USDA’s most recent estimate and a record if realized. The agency cited higher acreage as the reason for the revision higher.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Wednesday at $4.14. Thursday’s futures close and Wednesday’s national average corn basis of 37 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Thursday afternoon to be near $4.12.
