It was a mostly positive session across agricultural futures to close the week as traders seem satisfied for the time being with the risk removed from the market over the past week and took a pause Friday to cash in some short positions ahead of the weekend and also ahead of Monday morning’s USDA reports that hold the chance for increased volatility. Outside markets were mixed, as stock indices rose and the S&P 500 set a new record high following the announcement from the Trump administration and subsequent confirmation from Chinese officials that the two countries had signed an agreement earlier this week to loosen trade restrictions with rare earths reportedly the focal point. Meanwhile, energy markets continue a quiet trade since the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced earlier this week.
WHEAT:
September Kansas City wheat futures traded even on Friday, closing at $5.33 3/4. Meanwhile, September Chicago futures were 4 cents higher and September MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures were 2 1/2 cents higher. Wheat futures were mixed but for the most part able to join in on the strength in corn and soybean markets on Friday to recover some of the losses on the week. Kansas City futures were unable to hold an early attempt higher, falling back to even on the session likely amid harvest pressure across the hard red wheat region in the Southern Plains.
Monday’s Acreage report should be a relatively quiet affair, with expectations that acreage will fall close to the 45.4 million acres estimated in the March Prospective Plantings report. Meanwhile, the stocks report will also serve as the ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year, which ended on May 31. Stocks will likely come very close to the UDSA estimate of 841 mb but may fluctuate depending on how fourth quarter demand is finalized with specific interest toward exports. The wheat market will also be watching Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report for an update on winter wheat harvest, where a drier past week in the Southern Plains, stretching northeast across soft red winter regions, likely allowed for good progress to be made.
In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures were unable to sustain their attempt higher despite stronger Chicago and Minneapolis prices. Former support near $5.37 stood as resistance to prices for Friday. $5.30 is the next likely area of support to the downside.
CORN:
September corn was up 8 cents to $4.17 1/2 Friday. December corn closed up 6 cents to $4.27. Corn futures were able to recover Friday to narrowly avoid trading lower every day of this week, but it was also apparent on Friday that the market was very cautious about moving higher, with sellers re-emerging on a retest of former support. News Friday for the corn trade was slim, but Friday afternoon’s Commitments of Traders data will be a worthwhile look into the extent of the net-short among noncommercial traders in the corn market.
Monday’s Acreage and Stocks reports from USDA are the next big mover for the corn market. Looking back the past ten years, the June Stocks report has averaged an 18-cent move in front-month corn futures the day of the report, with the last three years particularly volatile and also bearish, with average losses of 26 cents within the day following the report’s release. Consider reading the DTN Report Preview released Thursday for a more detailed dive into the specific things to watch for in the report. Find that here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
My estimation for Monday is to see slightly higher corn acreage in the U.S. for 2025 as compared to the March estimate, and June 1 corn stocks somewhere in the area of 8% less than in June 2024. However, I remain nervous about what the stocks number on Monday will imply regarding the level of disappearance necessary to bring ending stocks to the level currently estimated by USDA in the most recent WASDE report, 1.365 billion bushels (bb)
In corn technicals, December corn futures attempted to trade to the former contract low at $4.28 where sellers rejected a move higher and the trade ultimately faded slightly off the daily high. $4.20 is the support level to watch for now. From a bullish perspective, the failure at $4.28 as well as relatively low volume behind the trade for Friday leaves an uneasy feeling going into the weekend.
