Row-crop futures were more or less red across the board on Wednesday, after rumors surfaced that the U.S. and Iran may be close to a plan to at least restart negotiations, which have been at a standstill now for the past few weeks. Meanwhile, President Trump warned of higher intensity bombings if Iran does not agree to a deal. The U.S. is also pausing efforts to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
WHEAT:
July Kansas City wheat futures fell 3 cents on Wednesday, closing at $6.87. Chicago and Minneapolis markets were also lower at midweek. While KC futures posted a second straight session lower, prices also finished double digits above daily lows for the second straight session as well, as traders are clearly uncertain of how bearish the outlook can be with U.S. crops noted to be historically poor in some areas of the Plains, along with the uncertain geopolitical factors at play. $6.75 to $6.80 continues to be a support level to watch. Meanwhile, the April high close of $7.04 3/4 is the bullish target.
In U.S. weather, some rainfall over the past 24 hours was noted across the Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas corridor, though totals were on the light end. Cold temperatures near freezing were also noted and will bring frost risks to that region through Thursday morning. Otherwise, precipitation over the next two weeks is still featuring the heaviest totals across eastern soft red regions, though Oklahoma and Texas look to receive decent amounts. The big question remains whether rainfall at this point will be enough to reverse crop conditions across the hard red states, which are reported to be very low historically.
In world wheat news, price pressure is seen this week across the globe, with Paris Milling futures down sharply for the third time in the past four sessions. Conditions are reported to be good overall across the Black Sea as well for growing winter wheat crops. From a fundamental standpoint, the situation looks to remain comfortable at least through summer of 2026. However, beyond that there will be production concerns beginning in the Southern Hemisphere, if fertilizer constraints persist.
Corn
July corn futures moved 11 1/2 cents lower on Wednesday, closing at $4.68 1/2. December futures were down 10 1/2 cents to $4.90. The corn market fell for a second straight session, and in the process erased more than half of last week’s gains. Support to watch will be the 50-day moving average near $4.66, while the 100-day moving average waits near $4.57. The bullish target for a resumption of the 2026 uptrend is Tuesday’s high of $4.87 1/2 on the July board.
Fundamental news for Wednesday was slim, with bearish influence from steadily lower energy futures, the primary factor at play. Within the energy sector, the EIA reported on Wednesday that last week’s ethanol production averaged 1.017 million barrels per day (bpd), up 8,000 bpd from the previous week but still among seasonal lows expected given the time of year. USDA reported that last week’s ethanol margins in Iowa averaged $2.58 per bushel of corn crushed, down for the third straight week, but still among seven-month highs. The ethanol program will need a strong summer in 2026 to hit USDA’s goal of 5.6 billion bushels (bb) of corn usage. Traders will also begin to position ahead of the May WASDE report from USDA, due out next Tuesday. The report will offer the first look at 2026-27 balance sheets since the February Ag Outlook forum, which forecasted a 14% cut to corn stocks by August 2027, but also used an acreage assumption of 94 million compared to 95.3 million estimated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.
In world corn news, the market will have to wait and see where 2026 Brazilian corn production lands, with the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) remaining optimistic and increasing their forecast for the state’s safrinha crop on Monday. Rainfall is expected to move in over southern Brazil again over the next two weeks, benefiting the second largest producing state of Parana. Meanwhile, temperatures will be worth monitoring through the upcoming weekend as well, with lows just above freezing forecasted for parts of Parana in southern Brazil. It’s important to recall that USDA is already among the lowest estimates in the market regarding South American corn production, 7.6 million metric tons (mmt) below CONAB in terms of Brazil’s crop and 9 mmt below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange regarding Argentina’s crop.
