OMAHA (DTN) — USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will likely be met with much less fanfare than last week’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports. Nevertheless, the report could generate some more bullish momentum for the corn market if domestic and world corn stocks numbers come in near pre-report estimates.
USDA will release its latest WASDE and crop production reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday.
U.S.
Pre-report estimates for domestic corn ending stocks range from 560 million bushels to 660 mb with the average coming in at 595 mb, 80 mb below the March report. If realized, the ending stocks-to-use ratio would drop to 4.4 percent, well below the current 5 percent, and would reflect the tightest situation on record. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a number closer to the low side of estimates given the solid commercial support that remains in place despite the nearby May contract rallying over $1 since last Thursday and the establishment of a new all-time high this week.
The average pre-report estimate for soybeans came in at 137 mb, slightly below the March projection of 140 mb. If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio would remain at the tightest level on record of 4.2 percent and would confirm the longer-term bullish supply-and-demand situation domestically.
Domestic wheat ending stocks seem set to rise, as the average pre-report estimate came in at 861 mb, 18 mb above the March report. If so, stocks to use would climb for a second straight month to 35.1 percent, trailing last year’s 48.4 percent but above the five-year average of 29.5 percent.
WORLD
World stocks in corn should fall once again with pre-report estimates calling for a 2.11 million metric ton decrease from March to 121.03 mmt, in large part tied to the lower U.S. number.
Traders are expecting a negligible increase in soybeans from 58.33 mmt to 58.94 mmt. However, if there is a surprise in soybeans, it could be from Brazil, as private estimates this week are 2 mmt-plus higher than USDA’s current 70 mmt estimate.
World wheat stocks could increase slightly as well from 181.9 mmt to the average guesstimate of 182.01 mmt, reminding everyone there remains an abundance of wheat globally.
BOTTOM LINE
If these reports come in near pre-report estimates, it may be viewed as bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral to bearish for wheat. However, the question for corn is: How much of this has already been built in by the recent rally?
John Sanow can be reached at john.sanow@telventdtn.com
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…
Crop Production report link: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/…
(AG/CZ)
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