Thursday USDA Report to be Full of Numbers

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The following is an article from Reuters:

* WHEN: Thursday, June 10, 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT)

* U.S. corn, soy stocks seen trimmed by export demand

* Slim chance of a surprise hike in corn/soy yield

* U.S. 2010/11 wheat stocks seen down due to smaller crop

 

By Julie Ingwersen

CHICAGO, June 8 (Reuters) – Strong export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans should prompt the U.S. Department of Agriculture to trim its estimates for the U.S. 2009/10 stockpiles of both commodities this week, analysts said.

The smaller stocks at year’s end should carry through to the new crop year, resulting in slight reductions in USDA’s corn and soy stocks estimates for 2010/11 as well.

For wheat, an expected smaller U.S. 2010 production figure should prompt a cut in USDA’s 2010/11 wheat ending stocks estimate from last month.

But any changes in USDA’s June 10 supply/demand report were seen as “fine-tuning,” with bigger adjustments likely delayed until after the agency issues key acreage and quarterly stocks data on June 30.

“Traditionally there is not a lot of excitement in this (mid-June) report. We don’t tend to get a lot of changes,” said Jerry Gidel of North America Risk Management Services.raises its estimate for U.S. 2010 corn or soybean production, given strong weekly condition ratings for the emerging crops amid greenhouse weather conditions in the Midwest.

Such an increase would imply larger grain stockpiles in the 2010/11 marketing year, a bearish factor for prices.

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures slumped to eight-month lows this week, largely due to prospects for a bumper crop. The rosy outlook also pushed front-month CBOT soybean prices to near three-month lows.


While most analysts downplayed the likelihood of USDA adjusting its yield and production forecasts in June, some said such a move was not unprecedented.

“With crop condition ratings up, we’ve seen USDA raise those numbers in the past,” said Don Roose, analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

In its weekly Crop Progress report, USDA said 76 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 75 percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent.

In its initial estimates for the 2010 harvest last month, USDA forecast that U.S. farmers would grow the largest corn crop on record, at 13.4 billion bushels, with an average yield of 163.5 bushels per acre. Some analysts have said the final corn yield could top 170 bpa.

The drop in CBOT prices may help maintain strong interest from exporters and other end-users. Analysts cited continued exporter demand as they pared their forecasts for 2009/10 corn and soy ending stocks.

The average estimate for 2009/10 corn ending stocks among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 1.714 billion bushels, down from USDA’s May estimate of 1.738 billion.

For 2010/11, the average analyst estimate for corn was 1.806 billion bushels, down from 1.818 billion in May.

The average analyst estimate for 2009/10 soybean ending stocks was 182 million bushels, down from USDA’s May figure of 190 million. The average trade figure for 2010/11 was 355 million bushels, from 365 million last month.

DOWNSIZED WHEAT CROP MAY PARE STOCKS

Analysts pegged U.S. 2009/10 wheat ending stocks at 946 million bushels, little changed from USDA’s May estimate of 950 million.

The analysts forecast 2010/11 wheat ending stocks at 982 million bushels, down from USDA’s May figure of 997 million, reflecting a drop in production estimates coupled with a smaller wheat carry-in from 2009/10.

Most analysts lowered their estimate for the 2010/11 U.S. winter wheat harvest, citing disease pressure in big breadbasket states like Kansas.

Wheat condition ratings, said Gidel, “were higher a month ago. That’s part of the reason I went with a smaller output.” (Additional reporting by Karl Plume)

 

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