On Feed Dec 1
USDA Actual: 103{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Average Guess: 102.50{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Guess Range: 102.0-103.0
Placed in November
USDA Actual: 106{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Average Guess: 105.00{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Guess Range: 101.0-110.5
Marketed in Nov
USDA Actual: 109{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Average Guess: 110.00{4d08edaf359bc2115b18a651716ebd427a137946ddca2143fa23b3ea721061e4}
Guess Range: 108.5-111.5
The monthly Cattle on Feed report released Friday afternoon contained very few surprises with the December 1 on feed population amounting to 11.6 million head, 3 percent larger than 2009 but virtually even with the 3-year average.
November placement inched a bit above the average guess (i.e., 106 percent vs. 105 percent), but hardly enough to warrant a market reaction per se. The same goes for the slightly smaller than expected marketing total (i.e., 109 percent vs. 110 percent).
However futures open on Monday, traders won’t have much to credit or blame here.
As expected, most of the increase in placement activity last month involved calves. Note the following placement weight breakdown: 800 pounds and over, 370,000 head, off 1.3 percent; 700-799 pounds, 373,000, off 5.6 percent; 600-699 pounds, 590,000, up 4.6 percent; under 600 pounds, 625,000, up 22.5 percent.
The more aggressive use of light weight cattle was triggered by slow developing wheat pasture and limited yearling numbers. Given the significant portion of calves in the placement mix, the boost in overall in-movement seems less daunting since finished cattle will probably be scattered over a larger time frame, reducing the threat of concentrated tonnage.
According to the DTN placement model, big lots now have approximately 1.83 million head scheduled to finished in March, even with 2009 and 1 percent below the 4-year average.
The big jump in November marketing confirms the very current state of the feeding sector. While the total was padded by one additional business day than 2009, the daily market rate was still 4 to 5 percent greater than the prior year.
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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp
