USDA Predicts Record Corn and Bean Crops


Both production and ending stocks numbers were increased for wheat in Tuesday's round of reports.

by Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) — Farmers will grow record crop this year: 14 billion bushels of corn and 3.8 bb of soybeans, USDA forecast in its Crop Production report released on Tuesday.

The national average corn yield, at 167.4 bushels per acre, would be a new record despite being below the range of pre-report estimates. Soybean yields are expected to average 45.4 bpa, up slightly from USDA's estimate in July and, if realized, would be a record.

USDA made many changes to corn's supply and demand balance sheet for both old crop and new crop. The result is that ending stocks for 2013-14 came in at 1.181 bb, below the range of pre-report estimates, while 2014-15 ending stocks came in at 1.808 bb, toward the low end of analysts' estimates.

USDA left old-crop soybean ending stocks unchanged from last month while increasing new-crop stocks by 15 million bushels to 430 mb.


USDA pegged yields at 167.4 bpa and production at 14.032 bb. The yield estimate, while lower than the 170 bpa anticipated by traders, is still a record and is up 2.1 bpa from last month's trend-based projection.

Eleven states are likely to set new corn yield records this year, USDA said. It also noted that its objective yield data indicated the highest number of ears on record for the 10 states where it conducts surveys.

USDA lowered 2013-14 ending stocks from July by 65 mb to 1.181 bb. It increased corn use for ethanol by 45 mb and increased exports by 20 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio came in at 8.7{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}.

New-crop ending stocks came in shy of the 2 bb that many traders expected. USDA pegged stocks for 2014-15 at 1.808 bb. Overall supply, after accounting for lower beginning stocks and larger production, increased 107 mb from July's report. USDA increased the feed and residual category by 50 mb, ethanol usage by 25 mb and exports by 25 mb. The result was a 7 mb increase in ending stocks from July's report. The stocks-to-use ratio came in at 13.5{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}, unchanged from last month.

Globally, old-crop ending stocks came in at 171.09 million metric tons, down from July's estimate. USDA pegged global ending stocks for 2014-15 at 187.8 mmt, slightly lower than July. USDA made no changes to production in Brazil or Argentina.


Farmers will harvest 3.816 bb of soybean with a national average yield of 45.4 bpa, USDA said. Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania could see record state yields.

While the ending stocks estimate for 2013-14 soybeans was unchanged from last month at 140 mb, USDA did a little shuffling on the supply and demand table. USDA lowered its import forecast by 5 mb while increasing exports by 20 mb. These changes were offset by reducing the residual category from -69 to -94 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio came in at 4.2{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}.

USDA increased its forecast for 2014-15 ending stocks by 15 mb, reflecting increased production estimates. USDA made no changed to the demand side of the table. The stocks-to-use ratio inched up to 12.1{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}.

Globally, old-crop soybean ending stocks declined slightly from last month's estimate to 67.09 mmt with a stocks-to-use ratio of 24.9{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}. USDA estimated 2014-15 ending stocks at 85.6 mmt, higher than July but within the range of pre-report expectations. The stocks-to-use ratio climbed to 30.2{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}. USDA made no changes to production in Brazil or Argentina.


USDA increased its all-wheat production estimate to 2.03 bb. Winter wheat production was increased 30 mb from July's forecast while spring wheat was adjusted upwards by 7 mb.

Ending stocks for 2014-15 increased 3 mb from July's estimate. Production increased 38 mb, and USDA sees 10 mb of those extra bushels going into the feed and residual category while 25 mb will be exported. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 31.3{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}.

Global ending stocks increased 3.4 mmt to 193 mmt. USDA forecast increased wheat production in Russia, China and Ukraine. Wheat consumption increased due to increased wheat feeding prospects. USDA increased wheat use for feed in the European Union by 2.5 mmt due to recent rains that damaged wheat quality. Global stocks-to-use came in at 27.3{ba1edae1e6da4446a8482f505d60d3b8e379ff6dedafe596d9ba4611a4e33a48}.


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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp


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