With 61 percent of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a record-tying yield average this year.
In the first crop production estimate for the season, the USDA forecasts winter wheat production of 1.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from last year.
The U.S. average yield is projected at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 5.3 bushels from 2015. If realized, the yield could equal the record set in 1999.
Expected grain area is forecast at 29.8 million acres, down 8 percent from last year. Hard red winter harvested acreage is down 9 percent from the previous year. Soft red winter harvested acreage is expected to be down 8 percent from last year.
Winter wheat production in Montana, based on conditions as of May 1, 2016, is forecast at 86.10 million bushels, according to the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. This forecast is five percent below last year’s production of 91.02 million bushels and six percent below the 91.84 million bushel crop produced two years ago. Acreage for harvest, forecast at 2.10 million acres, is 120,000 acres less than a year ago. Average yield is forecastat 41.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year’s yield.
As of May 15, Montana’s winter wheat crop condition was rated 1 percent very poor, 4 percent poor, 30 percent fair, 45 percent good, and 19 percent excellent, compared with 2 percent very poor, 8 percent poor, 30 percent fair, 44 percent good, and 16 percent excellent last year.
Northern Ag Note: Just in case anyone was curious about wheat prices in 1999…
graph from http://www.aboutinflation.com/wheat-vs-inflation
Source: AgriNews and NASS Montana Crop Report