Supplies of corn held in commercial storage and on farms as of Sept. 1 rose above 1.7 billion bushels — up from a year ago and well above many analysts’ expectations — according to USDA’s latest quarterly grain stocks report.
Stocks of soybeans and wheat also increased over year-ago levels.
The stocks report may be called bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral to bearish for wheat when trade resumes later this morning.
In another report, the annual Small Grains Summary, USDA reported final estimates for wheat, oat and barley production. Wheat production estimates were near the low end of trade expectations and down slightly from the August forecast, so this report may be neutral to slightly bullish for wheat.
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– QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS –
Corn stocks on Sept. 1, 2010, totaled 1.708 billion bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. Corn stored on farms decreased 20 percent from a year ago, and corn in commercial storage increased 15 percent.
The corn stocks numbers are useful as an indicator of quarterly feed use, which can’t be measured directly. The June-August 2010 indicated disappearance was 2.60 billion bushels, compared with 2.59 billion bushels during the same period last year, USDA reported.
Soybean stocks on Sept. 1, 2010, totaled 151 million bushels, up from 138 m bu a year ago. Soybeans stored on farms increased 1 percent, and soybeans in commercial storage increased 12 percent. Soybean indicated disappearance for the quarter is 420 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.
USDA also stated, after analyzing end-of-marketing-year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, no revisions were made to the 2009 soybean production.
All wheat stored in all positions on Sept. 1, 2010, totaled 2.459 billion bushels, up 11 percent from a year ago. Wheat disappearance for the June-August quarter totaled 740 million bushels, up 12 percent from a year ago.
– SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY –
USDA made some small changes in its August forecasts of wheat production in the small grains summary released early Friday. All wheat production in 2010 is now estimated at 2.224 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the August forecast but still slightly above 2009 production. All winter wheat production is pegged at 1.485 billion bushels, HRW at 1.018 b bu, SRW at 238 million bushels and white wheat at 229 m bu. Other spring wheat production increased to 627 m bu, up from 584 m bu in 2009, and durum production totaled 111 m bu, compared to 109 m bu a year ago.
USDA also reported oat production is estimated at a record low of 81.9 million bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Oat acreage harvested as 1.27 million acres, also the lowest on record and reflecting a continuing downward trend.
Barley is another small grain in production decline. USDA estimated production at 182 million bushels, down 20 percent from 2009, even though average yield is projected at 73.6 bushels an acre, up slightly from last year. Like oats, the barley acres harvested were down 21 percent from 2009, the lowest level since 1882.
Editor’s note: DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton contributed to this article.
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