USDA Raises Wheat Stocks Despite Poor Crop


by Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA made the most adjustments to the domestic wheat supply and demand table, leaving corn's table unchanged while making a 5 mb adjustment in old-crop soybean crush.

USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board left its production, acreage and yield estimates for 2014-15 unchanged for both corn and soybeans. All wheat production declined 21 mb from May's estimate to 1.942 billion bushels.

All estimates in the June WASDE fell within the range of pre-report expectations.

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Crop Production:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):


USDA left corn ending stocks unchanged from last month for the 2013-14 crop and the 2014-15 crop, at 1.146 bb and 1.726 bb respectively.

USDA left new-crop production at 13.935 bb with an average 165.3 bpa yield on 91.7 million planted acres. USDA noted that the slightly slower-than-average pace of spring planting is expected to be offset by favorable early crop and weather condition.

The stocks-to-use estimate remains unchanged at 12.9{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}.

Globally, USDA increased 2014-15 ending stocks by slightly less than 1 million metric ton. The global stocks-to-use estimate increased slightly to 18.9{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}.

USDA boosted Brazil's 2013-14 corn crop by 1 mmt to 76 mmt.


USDA increased old-crop soybean crush by 5 mb, which resulted in a 5 mb decline in ending stocks to 125 mb. That adjustment was the only change USDA made to the soybean supply and demand table this month. It translated into a dip in beginning stocks and led to a 5 mb decline in new-crop ending stocks. USDA now forecasts 2014-15 ending stocks at 325 mb with a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.4{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}.

New-crop production was left unchanged at 3.635 bb with a national average yield of 45.2 bpa on 81.5 million planted acres.

USDA slightly boosted global soybean ending stocks for 2014-15 to 82.9 mmt from last month's 82.2 mmt. The stocks-to-use ratio grew from 29.3{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} to 29.5{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}.


USDA pegged all wheat production at 1.942 billion bushels, 21 mb lower than last month in the WASDE report.

USDA forecast winter wheat production at 1.38 billion bushels, down 2{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} from last month and 10{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} from last year. The national average yield for all winter wheat was pegged at 42.4 bpa, according to USDA's Crop Production report.

Hard red winter wheat production declined 3{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} from May to 720 million bushels. USDA pegged the average yield in Kansas at 29 bpa, down 2 bpa from last month, based on its objective yield surveys. Oklahoma's average yield declined 1 bushel to 18 bpa, while Texas' yield dropped from 29 bpa to 25 bpa. Nebraska's average yield was bumped up 1 bpa to 40 bpa.

USDA increased soft red winter wheat production 2{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} from May to 454 mb. All wheat production numbers were within the range of pre-report expectations.

On the supply and demand side, USDA added 10 mb to 2013-14's ending stocks on a decrease in food use and offsetting changes to imports and exports.

On new-crop, total supply fell 11 mb due to the production and beginning stock changes. USDA cut food usage and feed and residual for the new-crop by 10 mb each. It also cut 25 mb from wheat's export forecast. The result was a 34 mb increase to ending stocks, bringing it to 574 mb. The stocks-to-use estimate increased from 24.9{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last month to 27.1{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} this month. The average price for wheat dropped from $7.30 to $7.

USDA increased global ending stocks by 1.19 mmt, bringing the global stocks-to-use ratio to 27{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}.


On the domestic side, corn ending stocks saw no change with both old crop and new crop in line with projections made in May, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. Domestic soybean ending stocks were lowered due to a 5 mb increase in crush demand, with old-crop at 125 mb resulting in an ending stocks-to-use figure of 3.7{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}. New-crop ending stocks were trimmed by the same 5 mb. Both old-crop and new-crop wheat ending stocks were increased. “These numbers should be viewed as neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat,” Newsom said.

On the world side, old-crop global ending stocks of corn increased slightly from May to June, raising the new-crop projection by 1 mmt, Newsom said. Soybean ending stocks also increased slightly for both old-crop and new-crop. Global wheat ending stocks are expected to come in at 188.6 mmt for 2014-2015, up from the May estimate of 187.4 mmt. This despite a slight decrease in old-crop estimates. “The world numbers should be viewed as bearish for all three grains,” Newsom said.


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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp


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