USDA tightened its forecasts of 2010-11 corn ending stocks, but the cut was within the trade’s expectations. Soybean and wheat numbers were unchanged. Changes to world supplies were in the expected direction and were relatively minor.
The report should be viewed as bullish for corn when trade resumes later this morning, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. The numbers were neutral at best for soybeans and wheat, he said. “But it won’t matter, as both will follow corn higher.”
In the U.S. tables, USDA’s World Ag Outlook Board cut U.S. ending stocks of corn to 675 million bushels, down from 745 m bu. in the January report and at the low end of pre-report estimates, which ranged from 645 to 795 m bu. The decrease reflects a 70-million-bushel hike in food/seed/industrial use, with ethanol use accounting for 50 m bu. of that. With total use of 13.5 billion bushels, ending stocks now are just 5 percent of use.
The estimated national 2010-11 average cash price rose 10 cents to $5.40.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…
Crop Production report link: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/…
USDA now pegs soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, unchanged from January forecast. Average pre-report estimates were 135 m bu. (range, 105 to 245).
At $11.70, the national average cash price for 2010-11 is unchanged from last month.
In its wheat supply and demand table, USDA left 2010-11 ending stocks unchanged, slightly disappointing to the trade, which expected a reduction to 810 m bu.
At $5.70, USDA sees the national average cash price 10 cents above its January estimate. That compares with $4.87 for the 2009 crop year.
World
In its world tables, USDA left forecast 2010-11 corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks virtually unchanged.
World corn ending stocks were reduced modestly to 122.51 million metric tons, from 127.0 in the January report. As many in the trade expected, Argentina’s crop was trimmed to 22 mmt vs. 23.5 mmt in the January report. Brazil’s crop was left unchanged at 51 mmt in January.
Soybean ending stocks for 2010 are 58.21, compared with 58.28 mmt in January.
In the world wheat supply and demand table, USDA trimmed ending stocks to 177.77 mmt from 177.99 mmt in the January report.
Eyes turn next to USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum, Feb. 24 and 25. The next WASDE report will be March 10.
© Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.
Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp
