Pat Hill, DTN Markets Editor
Thu Jun 10, 2010 07:30 AM CDT
OMAHA (DTN) — USDA hiked use of corn for ethanol in the 2009/crop year in the June supply and demand report released early Thursday, taking ending corn stocks for both 2009 and 2010 lower, below levels many analysts were expecting.
USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)The report may be seen as bullish for corn when trade resumes this morning. Numbers for soybeans and wheat came in within trade expectations, so the report may be neutral to bearish for those commodities.
In its monthly crop report, USDA raised estimates of the winter wheat crop, with most of the increases in hard red winter wheat.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.48 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the May 1 forecast, 3 percent below 2009, and above the average pre-report estimate.
Hard red winter wheat production is up 2 percent from last month to 979 mb. Soft red is up slightly from last month, to 284 mb, and white wheat production is forecast at 219 mb, also up slightly from last month.
Corn ending stocks are now projected at 1.603 billion bushels for 2009/10, down from 1.738 bb in May, reflecting an increase of 150 million bushels in corn for ethanol. For 2010/11, ending stocks are projected at 1.573 bb, down from 1.818 bb in May, with ethanol use up another 100 mb to 4.700 bb.
“Corn ending stocks for both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 saw dramatic decreases in Thursday’s June Supply and Demand reports, due in large part to sizeable increases in ethanol demand,” said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. “Soybean ending stocks decreased 5 mb for both marketing years, while wheat ending stocks dropped 20 mb to close out 2009-2010 but only 6 mb from the May estimate for 2010-2011 ending stocks. These numbers should be viewed as bullish for all three, most notably in corn.”
Yield and production forecasts for 2010 were left unchanged for corn.
For soybeans, USDA is now projecting old crop carryout at 185 mb, down from 190 mb last month, on an increase in crush. New crop carryout is 360 mb, down from 365 mb last month. Exports were left unchanged for both years, as were yield and production for 2010.
In the world tables, USDA cut ending stocks of corn and wheat for both old and new crop from its May projections, and it increased estimates of soybeans.
“World ending stocks for corn and wheat were decreased, with corn showing the more dramatic drop of 6.89 mmt in 2010-2011,” Newsom said. “Wheat ending stocks are expected to decrease 4.16 mmt from the May estimate. On the other end of the spectrum soybean ending stocks jumped to almost 67 mmt, another new record putting ending stocks to use at 27.2 percent. 2009-2010 soybean ending stocks increased as well due in part to a 1 mmt increase in Brazilian soybean production to 69 mmt.”
Pat Hill can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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