WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA lowered old-crop corn stocks by 97 million bushels to 1.78 billion bushels and soybean stocks by 172 mb to 255 mb.
On new-crop, USDA's production estimates reflected last month's Acreage report (a decrease in corn and an increase in soybeans), but USDA left yields unchanged at 166.8 bushels per acre on corn and 46 bpa on soybeans.
USDA sees new-crop corn production at 13.53 bb, slightly higher than the average pre-report estimate. The ending stocks estimate came in at 1.6 bb, within the range of pre-report estimates.
On soybeans, USDA estimated new-crop production at 3.89 bb, up from 3.85 bb last month and equal to the highest pre-report estimate. That puts the new-crop ending stocks estimate at 425 mb, down only 50 mb from June's estimate.
Globally, USDA made large changes to 2014-15 and 2015-16 ending stocks for wheat to reflect a sharp decline in wheat feeding in China that started in 2013-14. Global wheat supplies for 2015-16 increased by 12.1 million metric tons and use fell 5.4 mmt, resulting in a 17.4 mmt increase in ending stocks to 219.8 mmt.
Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA lowered old-crop corn ending stocks to 1.779 bb to reflect a lower June 1 stocks figure. USDA increased feed use by 50 mb, ethanol use by 25 mb and exports by 25 mb.
On new crop, USDA slightly lowered production by 100 mb to 13.53 bb due to lower planted acreage. USDA cut feed use by 25 mb, increased ethanol use by 25 mb and cut exports by 25 mb, resulting in a net decline in use of 25 mb. Ending stocks fell to 1.599 billion bushels.
Endings stock-to-use for 2014-15 came in at 13{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} while 2015-16 were pegged at 11.6{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0}. The new-crop national average price increased 25 cents from last month to $3.75.
Globally, USDA trimmed corn stocks for both 2014-15 and 2015-16 to 193.95 mmt (197.01 mmt last month) and 189.95 mmt (195.19 mmt last month) respectively.
Brazilian corn production for 2015-16 increased 2 mmt to 77 mmt while Argentina's production was left unchanged at 25 mmt.
The stocks-to-use ratios are 19.7{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2014-15 and 19.2{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2015-16.
SOYBEANS
Old-crop soybean ending stocks declined to 255 mb. USDA increased crush use by 15 mb, exports by 15 mb and residual use by 44 mb.
USDA's production estimates and ending stocks for 2015-16 came in toward the high end of pre-report estimates. New-crop soybean ending stocks came in at 425 mb. USDA increased its crush estimate by 10 mb.
The ending stocks-to-use for 2014-15 came in at 6.6{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} while 2015-16 came in at 11.4{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0}. The new-crop national average farm gate price also increased a quarter to $9.25.
Globally, soybean ending stocks for 2014-15 came in at 81.68 mmt, down from 83.7 mmt last month. Ending stocks for 2015-16 also declined to 91.8 mmt from 93.2 mmt in June. Argentina and Brazil production were left unchanged at 57 mmt and 97 mmt respectively.
Global ending stocks-to-use ratios came in at 27.6{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2014-15 and 30.5{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2015-16.
WHEAT
USDA lowered its all winter wheat production estimate 3{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} from its June 1 forecast to 1.46 billion bushels. Hard red winter wheat production, at 866 mb, is down 2{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} from last month. Soft red winter wheat production is down 5{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} at 393 mb. White winter wheat production came in at 196 mb, down 4{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} from last month, with 12.7 mb of hard white winter production and 183 mb of soft white winter production.
USDA pegged 2015-16 ending stocks at 842 mb, up from its 814 mb estimate last month. USDA incorporated the lower production estimates and increased domestic feed use by 5 mb and exports by 25 mb. The ending stocks-to-use ratio increased to 38.5{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0}.
Globally, USDA made large changes to 2014-15 and 2015-16 ending stocks for wheat to reflect a sharp decline in wheat feeding in China that started in 2013-14 and a corresponding increase in beginning stocks.
Global ending stocks for the 2014-15 crop year increased to 212.06 mmt from 200.41 mmt last month. Global wheat supplies for 2015-16 increased by 12.1 million metric tons and use fell 5.4 mmt, resulting in a 17.4 mmt increase in ending stocks to 219.8 mmt.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 30{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2014-15 and 30.8{62211894bbe3543ea27fa51e74e3ab79f2baeee0f4cbac9ff4b15b5bf1d81fd0} for 2015-16.
ANALYSIS
On the domestic side, USDA's July WASDE estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-16 is 1.599 billion bushels, based on 13.53 billion bushels of production and using the same yield of 166.8 bushels an acre. The new-crop ending stocks estimate is down from the new, lower estimate of 1.779 billion bushels for 2014-15, but is more than expected, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. “Friday's report should be viewed as neutral for corn,” he said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending in 2015-16 is 425 million bushels, based on 3.885 billion bushels of production and the same yield of 46.0 bushels an acre. The new-crop estimate of ending stocks is up from a new, lower estimate of 255 million bushels in 2014-15. Old-crop stocks were less than expected, but new-crop stocks were more than expected, due to no change in USDA's yield estimate. “Friday's report should be viewed as neutral for soybeans,” Hultman said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 is 842 million bushels, based on 2.148 billion bushels of production and is a little less than expected, Hultman said. The new-crop stocks estimate is up from 753 million bushels for 2014-15. “Friday's U.S. report should be viewed as neutral for wheat,” Hultman said.
On the global side, USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced from 195.19 million metric tons to 189.95 mmt and is less than expected, Hultman said. Brazil's corn production estimate for 2014-15 was increased by 1.0 to 82.0 mmt. Argentina's estimate stayed at 25.0 mmt.
USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was reduced from 93.22 mmt to 91.80 mmt and is less than expected. Argentina's soybean crop estimate for 2014-15 was increased from 59.5 mmt to 60.0 mmt.
USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 202.40 to 219.81 mmt and is much more than expected due largely to a downward revision of world consumption in 2014-15.
“Friday's world estimates from USDA are bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat,” Hultman said.
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