WASHINGTON, DC (DTN) — The main features in today’s reports included U.S. acreage changes, reductions in European wheat and stronger Chinese corn use while its soybean imports are dropping.
U.S. CORN SUPPLY-DEMAND
Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011-12 are sharply lower, with corn planted area reduced 1.5 million acres from March intentions, to 90.7 million in the WASDE report. Harvested area is reduced by 1.9 million, to 83.2 million acres with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production now is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million but still a record and up 753 million from 2010-11.
Old-crop corn ending stocks are unchanged. New-crop ending stocks were lowered from the May estimate of 900 million bushels to 695 million. Feed and residual use was reduced 100 million to 5 billion; ethanol and exports were left unchanged at 5.05 billion 1.8 billion respectively.
USDA’s price projection for the 2011 crop is $6.50 (range, $6-$7).
U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY-DEMAND
Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export projection for 1010-11. Exports for 2011-12 also are reduced, reflecting the export pace to date and reduced global import demand, led mainly by lower projected Chinese imports. USDA now sees 2011-crop ending stocks at 190 million, up from 160 million in May and 180 million for the 2010 crop. USDA pegs the season-average price at $14 (range, $13-$15).
U.S. WHEAT SUPPLY-DEMAND
U.S. wheat supplies for 2011-12 are lowered this month as a 30-million-bushel reduction in carry-in more than offset an increase in expected production. Old-crop exports were raised 20 million bushels based on strong shipments to date. USDA’s forecast for U.S. wheat usage this year is unchanged. Ending stocks are projected 15 million bushels lower, at 687 million. That is still above the 10-year average. The season-average farm price, pegged at an average of $7.70 (range, $7 to $8.40), is record high.
2011-2012 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION
All wheat production for 2011-12 is forecast at 2.068 billion bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production, at 1.45 billion bushels, is up 26 million bushels or 2{dfeadfe70caf58f453a47791a362966239aaa64624c42b982d70b175f7e3dda2} from the May forecast, with higher forecast yields for hard red winter, soft red winter, and soft white winter wheat. Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings were reduced by 290,000 acres based on flooding and persistent wet soils in North Dakota and Montana.
Hard red winter, pegged at 777 million, was at the top of the pre-report range; the average estimate was 743 million. Soft red winter, at 434 million, is within the range; average estimate was 417 million. White wheat, at 239 million is slightly above the 234 average but within the trade range.
WORLD ENDING STOCKS
Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected slightly lower due to a 5.2 million ton reduction in production. Still, at 664.3 million tons, production would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010-11. EU-27 production is cut 7.1 million tons due to persistent dryness in a number of countries, but especially France. Production also is reduced 1 million tons for Canada. Argentina, Australia and Pakistan will grow more this year based on better weather.
As expected, global corn ending stocks for both 2010-11 and 2011-12 were trimmed: Old-crop fell from 122.19 to 117.44 mmt and new-crop, from 129.14 to 111.89. A key factor was a boost in China’s corn consumption by 8 million tons for 2010 crop and 13 million tons for 2011. These changes trimmed China’s 2011-12 ending stocks to 51 million tons, down by 12 million tons from last month’s estimates and down 2.7 million from 2010-11.
World soybean ending stocks show minor revisions, with 2010-11 up slightly at 64.52 and 2011-12 almost unchanged at 61.59. New-crop estimates for Brazilian and Argentine production were unchanged.
Linda Smith can be reached at linda.h.smith@telventdtn.com
(AG/KM)
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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp
