Winter Wheat Conditions Continue to Deteriorate

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by Cheri Zagurski, DTN Managing Editor

OMAHA (DTN) — Winter wheat conditions just keep getting worse, according to the latest USDA weekly Crop Progress and Condition report issued Monday afternoon.

Forty-two percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor for the week ended May 11, compared to 38{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and 39{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last year. The percent of the crop rated good to excellent fell to 30{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} compared to 31{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week.

“USDA's winter wheat ratings resulted in a DTN Winter Wheat Index of 31, down from 39 a year ago and far below the five-year average of 96.6,” said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. “This report should be viewed as bullish due to the declining crop conditions in the southern states.”

Winter wheat is 44{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} headed, compared to 29{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and a 46{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} five-year average. Crops in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas were 72{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, 90{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, and 46{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} headed, respectively.

Josh Svaty of Ellsworth, Kan., is not holding much hope for his wheat crop, although he did receive copious amounts of moisture from Sunday's storms.

“We missed the major hail last night,” Svaty said in an email to DTN. “Got around 2 inches of much-needed rain just south of Ellsworth. I've pretty much written my wheat off … though our weather did it nothing but good here last night. It might be 8 inches tall, but it will be interesting to see if this rain followed by a week of cooler weather will help it fill in the head. I still don't predict much out of it.”

Svaty said he is ready to plant corn now with the moisture tallied from the weekend storms. “Bigger news from the rain is that we can proceed with the rest of my spring crop planting,” he wrote. “We have had no measurable rain in weeks, so after I put a little corn in I stopped planting altogether because conditions were so poor. I have yet to plant any beans, but will start now once it dries out. The dry coupled with the brutal wind for the past two months has taken a real toll on everything around here.”

Nationwide, corn planting hit 59{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} complete with emergence at 18{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, compared to 29{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} and 7{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and five-year averages of 58{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} and 25{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, respectively.

“Iowa was 70{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} planted, Illinois was 78{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, Nebraska was 77{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, and Minnesota was 31{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e},” Hultman pointed out. “This report should be viewed as bearish given the substantial increase in planting progress,” he said.

Soybean planting progress jumped 15 percentage points to 20{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} complete, compared to 5{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and a 21{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} five-year average. “Iowa is 20{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} planted, Illinois is 26{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} planted and Minnesota is 4{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e},” Hultman said. “The report showed significant planting progress and should be viewed as bearish.”

Spring wheat is 34{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} planted, compared to 26{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and a 53{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} five-year average. Emergence is at 12{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, compared to 7{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} last week and a 9{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} five-year average.

“Spring wheat plantings improved in South Dakota to 74{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e}, but lag behind in North Dakota and Minnesota at 11{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} and 8{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} respectively,” Hultman said. “This report should be viewed as bullish due to the ongoing planting delay in the north-central states.”

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp

 

 

A Regional Look at Crop Progress from Northern Ag Network:

In Montana, 51{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} of the spring wheat crop is in.  This is only down slightly from last year and the 5-year average.  Winter wheat condition is rated at 62{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} good-to-excellent.  Get full report…

In North Dakota, spring wheat planted was 11 percent, behind 23 last year and 39 average.  Winter wheat condition is at 43{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} good-to-excellent.  Get full report…

In South Dakota, spring wheat is 74{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} seeded, ahead of last year but behind the five-year average.  Winter wheat is rated at 64{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} good-to-excellent.  Get full report…

In Wyoming, 57{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} of spring wheat has been planted.  That's way ahead of last year and slightly behind the 5-year numbers.  Winter wheat is rated at 44{0a3336b3da8cf935de4f3eb78fe29508c4b8b5ebd27d01af2d815614325d533e} good-to-excellent.  Get full report…

 

© Northern Ag Network 2014

 

Haylie Shipp

 

 

 

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